🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."