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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.